US considers direct military action as Israel-Iran conflict escalates

As the aerial conflict between Israel and Iran enters its sixth day, speculation is mounting that the United States may join its ally Israel in direct military action against Tehran. 

US President Donald Trump has called for Iran's "unconditional surrender," a rhetorical shift that analysts suggest could signal a broader conflict beyond strikes on nuclear facilities.

President Trump has reportedly discussed the situation with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, while the US military is deploying additional aircraft, including fighter jets and refueling tankers, to the Middle East.

Professor Stephen Zunes of the University of San Francisco noted that the call for unconditional surrender of a sovereign nation is "pretty extreme" and suggests a much larger war might be on the horizon, potentially involving the US. Both Israel's military and President Trump have urged residents to evacuate Tehran, Iran's capital city with a population exceeding 9 million.

The conflict has already resulted in significant casualties. Iranian officials report at least 224 deaths, predominantly civilians, while Israeli officials state that 24 civilians have been killed.

Trump Administration Navigates Conflicting Pressures

Sources familiar with internal discussions indicate that President Trump and his team are considering several options, including joining Israel in strikes against Iranian nuclear sites. 

Israel maintains its assault is necessary to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons, which it views as an existential threat. Iran, however, asserts its nuclear program is peaceful.

Eyal Mayroz, a senior lecturer of peace and conflict studies at the University of Sydney, highlighted that the Trump administration is "stuck between two camps": populists who oppose unprovoked US intervention and the Republican Party's old guard who are more supportive of Israel. While a direct US intervention risks Iran targeting American assets or allies in the Gulf, Mayroz believes Iran is unlikely to deliberately provoke such a response given its current engagement with Israel.

Why the Demand for Unconditional Surrender?

President Trump's demand for Iran's surrender follows Tehran's appeal to Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and Oman to pressure the American president for an immediate ceasefire. Trump, however, has stated he seeks a "real end" to the conflict, not just a ceasefire.

Professor Zunes suggested that Trump's insistence on Iran's surrender, rather than pushing for a ceasefire, aims to "weaken Iran as much as possible." Zunes pointed to Trump's withdrawal from the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), which froze Iran's nuclear program, as evidence that the US president's true objective may not solely be about nuclear non-proliferation. Trump's action three years ago, according to Zunes, spurred Iran to renew its pursuit of a nuclear bomb.

Since returning to the White House in January, Trump has sought a new nuclear agreement with Iran. Zunes believes the current escalation is not about a diplomatic solution, noting that US-Iran nuclear talks were scheduled to resume in Oman. Instead, he views it as an effort to exert American hegemony, drawing parallels to the 2003 invasion of Iraq and Washington's historical targeting of regional powers that challenge its influence in the Middle East.

Despite internal discussions about direct meetings with Iranians this week, Trump has appeared noncommittal about renewing talks, stating he's "not too much in the mood to negotiate." He reportedly sees the US-made 30,000-pound "bunker buster" bomb, capable of destroying Iran's underground nuclear sites, as key leverage.

Mayroz believes that while unconditional surrender is unacceptable to Iran, the critical question is what will bring them back to the negotiating table. He suggests it will take time for Iran to frame any return to negotiations as something other than defeat. Iran is a large country with a population of 90 million and a resilient system, currently well-protected.

Potential Impact of Targeting Khamenei

President Trump also stated that the US knows the whereabouts of Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei but does not intend to kill him "for now." Khamenei's main military and security advisers have recently been killed in Israeli strikes.

Zunes warned that an assassination of Khamenei, despite his unpopularity among many Iranians, would lead to a "very strong reaction" with "fairly serious consequences." He noted that various militias in Iraq view Khamenei as their Imam and would likely launch strikes against American soldiers and interests if he were killed.

However, Zunes also suggested that Khamenei's death would not significantly impact the Iranian regime or the wider Middle East. He cited Khamenei's advanced age of 86 and a lack of the "gravitas" of his predecessor, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini. Zunes added that the Revolutionary Guard has become almost as powerful as the Ayatollah in the past decade, meaning Khamenei's death wouldn't lead to the regime's downfall.